Modeling and prediction of water cut performance for polymer flooding based on ARMAX

A new modeling method is presented based on system identification theory to predict the water-cut variation of the polymer flooding. Dynamic factors of the polymer flooding exploitation are considered in the modeling procedure, and the model is an autoregressive (AR) moving average (MA) model with exogenous (X). This paper develops an ARMAX model for predicting water-cut change curve of polymer flooding which usually looks like a funnel, and the dynamic history data are used directly to establish regression model. The model considers many dynamic factors affecting water-cut of polymer flooding such as injecting concentration, oil production rate etc. Practical dynamic data verified that the prediction results had high precision. The ARMAX prediction model is a powerful tool for evaluating the effects and reducing the risk of polymer flooding.